Disclaimer

The presented study was prepared on the basis of data from the following sources:

therefore, all the conclusions and observations contained in this article significantly depend on the veracity of the data contained therein!

Abstract

The S&P500 index has fallen over the last 4 weeks from 2/19/2020 from the level 3393.52 to a value below 2191.86 noting one of the largest short-term declines (around -35.41%), during last several dozen of years. The events of the last 4 weeks tend to analyze the reasons for such a large panic on the financial markets with more attention. We will focus on the following aspects:

  • description of the reaction of capital markets to the development of the epidemic on the example of the S&P500 index and the VIX volatility index,

  • global epidemic development, broken down by country, with particular regard to the number of infected (confirmed_cases), the number of people who have recovered (recovered_cases), the number of people who have died (deaths_cases) and mortality in countries with the highest number of coronavirus cases,

  • evolution of the mortality rate on the basis of two different definitions and the answer to the question of what follows,

  • aggregate approach to the development of the epidemic in the countries with the highest number of infected in both absolute and relative terms (in relation to the number of population in a given country),

  • the potential impact of the current epidemic on the economies of countries and the behavior of stock exchanges in the future, in an unprecedented response from governments, central banks and other institutions supervising the behavior of financial markets.

Main Figure

Summary

Based on only the available data presented in this study, we can conclude that the current reaction of financial markets in the world was exaggerated and discount only a very negative development, which is one of the possible scenarios and does not necessarily have to happen. In the direction of drawing such a conclusion we are prompted by the following premises:

  1. The high growth dynamics of new cases in some countries (Figures 3 to 13) is an immanent feature of the epidemic at its initial stage (I stage), and as the example of the countries in which the first cases were detected (China, South Korea) shows, the epidemic is manageable.

  2. A detailed analysis of the mortality rate in the two versions presented in this study (Figures 14 to 25) confirms that the countries currently recording the highest increase in both confirmed and deaths cases ( USA, Italy, Spain, Germany, Iran and France) are currently on the initial stage of the epidemic, after which the dynamics of epidemic growth should flatten and move towards the shapes recorded for China and South Korea.

  3. Analysis of the curves illustrating the number of confirmed and deaths in aggregate in absolute terms and in relation to the population in individual countries (Figures 26 to 33) shows that in other countries (except China and South Korea) such as Italy or Iran, the dynamics of new cases are beginning to flatten.

  4. Figures 29 and 33 present the only approach of concern. We can see that after establishing the same starting point for all countries, in the context of epidemic development, in relative terms, in relation to the population in a given country (Figure 29 - the number of confirmed cases > the population in a given country / 1 million, Figure 33 - the number of deaths cases > the population in a given country / 1 million) currently the epidemic in these countries is much faster than in the same period in China. However, we must point out that no democratic country can control its societies as much as China does.

At the end we have to point out that, despite the fact that the level of panic observed recently on financial markets is not fully justified, the prolonged unprecedented actions of the government related to the closure of borders, the isolation of economies, the impossibility of doing business in the normal form and, as a consequence, the complete break in the supply chain can be have very negative and unpredictable economic effects. What’s worse, the subsequent consequences of these activities, e.g. those related to the bankruptcy of even entire sectors of the economy, may have in practice much more severe consequences for the societies of individual countries through significant and permanent destabilization of entire economies, and then the current exaggerated reaction of exchanges, unfortunately post factum, will show fully adequate!

More details concerning our analysis are presented below.

Reaction of financial markets

The recent behavior of the S&P500 index is very well illustrated in the chart below, where the dynamics of recent declines indicate the signs of extreme panic …

Coronavirus COVID-19 and S&P500 index

… but only the analysis of the behavior of the VIX index shows the strength of current turbulence in the financial markets. Over the past 4 weeks, the VIX index, measuring the implied volatility of options on the S&P500 index, and recognized by investors as so-called “Fear barometer”, which, among others reflects the current risk of investment in shares, increased to levels recently recorded in October 2008 (at the height of the financial crisis of 2008-2009) and during the crash in 1987. It looks as if the financial market now assumes the possible collapse of the financial system and massive bankruptcies of institutions operating there similarly as it was in the second half of 2008. However, is the situation so tragic at present or in other words, do we have reason to believe that we will be in such a catastrophic situation as suggested by the behavior of financial markets?

Coronavirus COVID-19 and VIX index

Declines in other equity indices started 5 weeks ago reached from 30% to even 45% during the last 2 weeks (DAX: -40%, Nikkei225: -33%, FTSE100: -37%, WIG20: -43%).

Such changes testify to the huge panic on the financial markets caused by the possible consequences of the coronavirus epidemic, but here again the question arises whether the scale of the panic and the size of the response is justified by hard data on the development of the epidemic and its potential effects on global economies? In other words, it is worth asking the question: are financial markets currently discounting the scenario adequate to the data we currently have, or rather extremely pessimistic, assuming a very rapid epidemic development in the following weeks and total destabilization of financial markets and economies of individual countries?

World epidemic development

To answer these and other questions in the summary, let’s look at the beginning of the global epidemic (Global cases - Figure 3), the world excluding China (Cases outside China - Figure 4), and cases only in China (only China cases) - Chart 5).

The charts in this part are presented on a logarithmic scale to properly illustrate whether the epidemic in given countries or parts of the world is developing at an exponential rate, which should actually bother us a lot, or rather at a slower rate, which would indicate its development in a significantly slower pace and less reason to worry and escalate panic among societies around the world.

A brief look at the situation around the world

Increasing the sum of confirmed cases worldwide (red line) to the value 782365 and the number of deaths to the value of 37582, may be of concern. However, a thorough analysis of the number of recovered cases (green line) and the variable showing the difference between confirmed cases and recovered cases (blue line) shows a less pessimistic picture, especially in relation to the number of people living in individual countries affected by the epidemic, as shown in the final figures of this study.

The very strong exponential development of the epidemic ended in February 2020 and hard data do not confirm the extreme panic currently observed in the financial markets, although it is worth noting that the growth dynamics of infected for the last week was about 12% per day.

First, a table showing the daily increase in the number of new confirmed, recovered and deaths cases in absolute and percentage terms:

Table 1. The evolution of the epidemic in all countries.

date confirmed cases daily increase in comfirmed cases daily % increase
2020-03-30 782365 62248 8.64%
2020-03-29 720117 59411 8.99%
2020-03-28 660706 67415 11.36%
2020-03-27 593291 63700 12.03%
2020-03-26 529591 61938 13.24%
2020-03-25 467653 49608 11.87%
2020-03-24 418045 39810 10.53%
date deaths cases daily increase in deaths cases daily % increase in deaths cases
2020-03-30 37582 3657 10.78%
2020-03-29 33925 3273 10.68%
2020-03-28 30652 3454 12.7%
2020-03-27 27198 3228 13.47%
2020-03-26 23970 2789 13.17%
2020-03-25 21181 2556 13.72%
2020-03-24 18625 2120 12.84%
date recovered cases daily increase in recovered cases daily % increase in recovered cases
2020-03-30 164566 15484 10.39%
2020-03-29 149082 9667 6.93%
2020-03-28 139415 8500 6.49%
2020-03-27 130915 8765 7.18%
2020-03-26 122150 8363 7.35%
2020-03-25 113787 5787 5.36%
2020-03-24 108000 9649 9.81%

The most important observation resulting from this table is the reduction in the dynamics of the daily increase in the number of confirmed cases in the world. These may be the first signs of a stronger slowdown in the epidemic.

The world, except China

Data analysis outside of China prompts slightly more pessimism. Both the number of new cases (red line) and the difference between confirmed cases and recovered cases (blue line) takes on an exponential shape, which in a sense explains the panic reaction of investors, which began on 2/2/2020 and continues to the present. However, it is worth noting here that, outside China, the epidemic started much later and is now in its I phase, which by definition is characterized by high dynamics, at least until decisive measures are taken and will not start working. In addition, the moment of launching the specific actions to mitigate the development of the epidemic and their actual impact on the number of confirmed cases is associated with some natural delay.

Table 2. The evolution of the epidemic outside China.

date confirmed cases daily increase in comfirmed cases daily % increase
2020-03-30 700167 62172 9.74%
2020-03-29 637995 59288 10.24%
2020-03-28 578707 67313 13.16%
2020-03-27 511394 63585 14.2%
2020-03-26 447809 61817 16.02%
2020-03-25 385992 49538 14.72%
2020-03-24 336454 39717 13.38%
date deaths cases daily increase in deaths cases daily % increase in deaths cases
2020-03-30 34274 3653 11.93%
2020-03-29 30621 3268 11.95%
2020-03-28 27353 3451 14.44%
2020-03-27 23902 3223 15.59%
2020-03-26 20679 2783 15.55%
2020-03-25 17896 2552 16.63%
2020-03-24 15344 2113 15.97%
date recovered cases daily increase in recovered cases daily % increase in recovered cases
2020-03-30 88643 15143 20.6%
2020-03-29 73500 9185 14.28%
2020-03-28 64315 8120 14.45%
2020-03-27 56195 8226 17.15%
2020-03-26 47969 7955 19.88%
2020-03-25 40014 5294 15.25%
2020-03-24 34720 9183 35.96%

China

The next chart, showing the evolution of the epidemic in China, shows what path the world can take, although this is only one possible scenario. Accurate analysis of data for China indicates inhibition of new coronavirus cases at around 82198 (red line) and a strong increase in recovered cases (currently at level 75923, green line). Current difference between confirmed cases and recovered cases (approx 6275) for China (the blue line) it already shows a very optimistic example of the country in which the epidemic was under control.

So aren’t financial markets just taking into account the extremely negative scenario?

Table 3. The evolution of the epidemic in China.

date confirmed cases daily increase in comfirmed cases daily % increase
2020-03-30 82198 76 0.09%
2020-03-29 82122 123 0.15%
2020-03-28 81999 102 0.12%
2020-03-27 81897 115 0.14%
2020-03-26 81782 121 0.15%
2020-03-25 81661 70 0.09%
2020-03-24 81591 93 0.11%
date deaths cases daily increase in deaths cases daily % increase in deaths cases
2020-03-30 3308 4 0.12%
2020-03-29 3304 5 0.15%
2020-03-28 3299 3 0.09%
2020-03-27 3296 5 0.15%
2020-03-26 3291 6 0.18%
2020-03-25 3285 4 0.12%
2020-03-24 3281 7 0.21%
date recovered cases daily increase in recovered cases daily % increase in recovered cases
2020-03-30 75923 341 0.45%
2020-03-29 75582 482 0.64%
2020-03-28 75100 380 0.51%
2020-03-27 74720 539 0.73%
2020-03-26 74181 408 0.55%
2020-03-25 73773 493 0.67%
2020-03-24 73280 466 0.64%

Development of the epidemic in selected countries

Another 7 countries, except China, most affected by the coronavirus epidemic are: United States (161807), Italy (101739), Spain (87956), Germany (66885), France (45170), Iran (41495) and South Korea as an optimistic example (9661). However, the analysis of the development of the epidemic in these countries does not allow drawing clear conclusions as to its further spread. While we can say that the situation was clearly deteriorating in Italy, the USA and Spain, the spread of coronavirus in South Korea has been almost stopped. The data for the following days will only show whether in South Korea we will be dealing with a similar trend as in China, or whether it will be only a temporary stop before the further development of the epidemic. Below are detailed charts for the seven countries mentioned above and Poland.

United States

In the US, as in most European countries, we are seeing a surge in new cases characterizing the I stage of the epidemic. It is a country with currently the highest dynamics of epidemic development, but also the first stage of its development began there at the latest. Again, we see that the dynamics of % of daily growth has been falling significantly, at least for several days.

Table 4. The evolution of the epidemic in United States.

date confirmed cases daily increase in comfirmed cases daily % increase
2020-03-30 161807 20921 14.85%
2020-03-29 140886 19408 15.98%
2020-03-28 121478 19821 19.5%
2020-03-27 101657 17821 21.26%
2020-03-26 83836 18058 27.45%
2020-03-25 65778 12038 22.4%
2020-03-24 53740 9893 22.56%
date deaths cases daily increase in deaths cases daily % increase in deaths cases
2020-03-30 2978 511 20.71%
2020-03-29 2467 441 21.77%
2020-03-28 2026 445 28.15%
2020-03-27 1581 372 30.77%
2020-03-26 1209 267 28.34%
2020-03-25 942 236 33.43%
2020-03-24 706 149 26.75%
date recovered cases daily increase in recovered cases daily % increase in recovered cases
2020-03-30 5644 2979 111.78%
2020-03-29 2665 1593 148.6%
2020-03-28 1072 203 23.36%
2020-03-27 869 188 27.61%
2020-03-26 681 320 88.64%
2020-03-25 361 13 3.74%
2020-03-24 348 170 95.51%

Italy

The strong increase in new cases, with high dynamics, characterizing the I stage of the epidemic with no clear signs of a rapid increase in the number of recovered persons compared to confirmed cases (green line versus red line) ended some time ago and now the dynamics of the growth of new confirmed clearly weakens as shown in both the table below as well as in Figure 7.

Table 5. The evolution of the epidemic in Italy.

date confirmed cases daily increase in comfirmed cases daily % increase
2020-03-30 101739 4050 4.15%
2020-03-29 97689 5217 5.64%
2020-03-28 92472 5974 6.91%
2020-03-27 86498 5909 7.33%
2020-03-26 80589 6203 8.34%
2020-03-25 74386 5210 7.53%
2020-03-24 69176 5249 8.21%
date deaths cases daily increase in deaths cases daily % increase in deaths cases
2020-03-30 11591 812 7.53%
2020-03-29 10779 756 7.54%
2020-03-28 10023 889 9.73%
2020-03-27 9134 919 11.19%
2020-03-26 8215 712 9.49%
2020-03-25 7503 683 10.01%
2020-03-24 6820 743 12.23%
date recovered cases daily increase in recovered cases daily % increase in recovered cases
2020-03-30 14620 1590 12.2%
2020-03-29 13030 646 5.22%
2020-03-28 12384 1434 13.1%
2020-03-27 10950 589 5.68%
2020-03-26 10361 999 10.67%
2020-03-25 9362 1036 12.44%
2020-03-24 8326 1302 18.54%

Spain

The surge in new cases characterizing the I stage of the epidemic, however, the dynamics of development does not increase, and in recent days has even dropped significantly.

Table 6. The evolution of the epidemic in Spain.

date confirmed cases daily increase in comfirmed cases daily % increase
2020-03-30 87956 7846 9.79%
2020-03-29 80110 6875 9.39%
2020-03-28 73235 7516 11.44%
2020-03-27 65719 7933 13.73%
2020-03-26 57786 8271 16.7%
2020-03-25 49515 9630 24.14%
2020-03-24 39885 4749 13.52%
date deaths cases daily increase in deaths cases daily % increase in deaths cases
2020-03-30 7716 913 13.42%
2020-03-29 6803 821 13.72%
2020-03-28 5982 844 16.43%
2020-03-27 5138 773 17.71%
2020-03-26 4365 718 19.69%
2020-03-25 3647 839 29.88%
2020-03-24 2808 497 21.51%
date recovered cases daily increase in recovered cases daily % increase in recovered cases
2020-03-30 16780 2071 14.08%
2020-03-29 14709 2424 19.73%
2020-03-28 12285 2928 31.29%
2020-03-27 9357 2342 33.39%
2020-03-26 7015 1648 30.71%
2020-03-25 5367 1573 41.46%
2020-03-24 3794 1219 47.34%

Germany

In Germany, as in Spain and Italy, we are observing a surge in new cases in absolute terms, which characterizes the I stage of the epidemic, but, as in those countries, the dynamics of new cases growth is beginning to flatten.

Table 7. The evolution of the epidemic in Germany.

date confirmed cases daily increase in comfirmed cases daily % increase
2020-03-30 66885 4790 7.71%
2020-03-29 62095 4400 7.63%
2020-03-28 57695 6824 13.41%
2020-03-27 50871 6933 15.78%
2020-03-26 43938 6615 17.72%
2020-03-25 37323 4337 13.15%
2020-03-24 32986 3930 13.53%
date deaths cases daily increase in deaths cases daily % increase in deaths cases
2020-03-30 645 112 21.01%
2020-03-29 533 100 23.09%
2020-03-28 433 91 26.61%
2020-03-27 342 75 28.09%
2020-03-26 267 61 29.61%
2020-03-25 206 49 31.21%
2020-03-24 157 34 27.64%
date recovered cases daily increase in recovered cases daily % increase in recovered cases
2020-03-30 13500 4289 46.56%
2020-03-29 9211 730 8.61%
2020-03-28 8481 1823 27.38%
2020-03-27 6658 985 17.36%
2020-03-26 5673 2126 59.94%
2020-03-25 3547 304 9.37%
2020-03-24 3243 2977 1119.17%

France

In France, as in Germany, we are observing a surge in new cases characterizing the I stage of the epidemic, but again the dynamics of the epidemic’s development have been slowing down for several days.

Table 8. The evolution of the epidemic in France.

date confirmed cases daily increase in comfirmed cases daily % increase
2020-03-30 45170 4462 10.96%
2020-03-29 40708 2603 6.83%
2020-03-28 38105 4703 14.08%
2020-03-27 33402 3851 13.03%
2020-03-26 29551 3951 15.43%
2020-03-25 25600 2978 13.16%
2020-03-24 22622 2499 12.42%
date deaths cases daily increase in deaths cases daily % increase in deaths cases
2020-03-30 3030 419 16.05%
2020-03-29 2611 294 12.69%
2020-03-28 2317 320 16.02%
2020-03-27 1997 299 17.61%
2020-03-26 1698 365 27.38%
2020-03-25 1333 231 20.96%
2020-03-24 1102 240 27.84%
date recovered cases daily increase in recovered cases daily % increase in recovered cases
2020-03-30 7964 738 10.21%
2020-03-29 7226 1502 26.24%
2020-03-28 5724 17 0.3%
2020-03-27 5707 752 15.18%
2020-03-26 4955 1048 26.82%
2020-03-25 3907 657 20.22%
2020-03-24 3250 1044 47.33%

Iran

Further development of the epidemic without clear turning points, although the shape of the curves illustrating the number of new cases indicates a clearly lower dynamics of epidemic development than at the beginning and an attempt to follow the trail of South Korea in which the epidemic expires.

Table 9. The evolution of the epidemic in Iran.

date confirmed cases daily increase in comfirmed cases daily % increase
2020-03-30 41495 3186 8.32%
2020-03-29 38309 2901 8.19%
2020-03-28 35408 3076 9.51%
2020-03-27 32332 2926 9.95%
2020-03-26 29406 2389 8.84%
2020-03-25 27017 2206 8.89%
2020-03-24 24811 1762 7.64%
date deaths cases daily increase in deaths cases daily % increase in deaths cases
2020-03-30 2757 117 4.43%
2020-03-29 2640 123 4.89%
2020-03-28 2517 139 5.85%
2020-03-27 2378 144 6.45%
2020-03-26 2234 157 7.56%
2020-03-25 2077 143 7.39%
2020-03-24 1934 122 6.73%
date recovered cases daily increase in recovered cases daily % increase in recovered cases
2020-03-30 13911 1520 12.27%
2020-03-29 12391 712 6.1%
2020-03-28 11679 546 4.9%
2020-03-27 11133 676 6.46%
2020-03-26 10457 832 8.64%
2020-03-25 9625 712 7.99%
2020-03-24 8913 982 12.38%

South Korea

The next chart, illustrating the development of the epidemic in South Korea, indicates the possible stabilization of coronavirus development in this country after its strong initial growth. For now, the evolution of the epidemic resembles charts for China, which is optimistic in the context of a possible scenario for the world.

Table 10. The evolution of the epidemic in South Korea.

date confirmed cases daily increase in comfirmed cases daily % increase
2020-03-30 9661 78 0.81%
2020-03-29 9583 105 1.11%
2020-03-28 9478 146 1.56%
2020-03-27 9332 91 0.98%
2020-03-26 9241 104 1.14%
2020-03-25 9137 100 1.11%
2020-03-24 9037 76 0.85%
date deaths cases daily increase in deaths cases daily % increase in deaths cases
2020-03-30 158 6 3.95%
2020-03-29 152 8 5.56%
2020-03-28 144 5 3.6%
2020-03-27 139 8 6.11%
2020-03-26 131 5 3.97%
2020-03-25 126 6 5%
2020-03-24 120 9 8.11%
date recovered cases daily increase in recovered cases daily % increase in recovered cases
2020-03-30 5228 195 3.87%
2020-03-29 5033 222 4.61%
2020-03-28 4811 283 6.25%
2020-03-27 4528 384 9.27%
2020-03-26 4144 414 11.1%
2020-03-25 3730 223 6.36%
2020-03-24 3507 598 20.56%

Poland

The next chart shows a country that is not at the top of the list for the time being given the number of confirmed cases, but I present it because of my place of residence. The situation in Poland, at least for now, is far from the epidemic observed in many other European countries. Here the question arises whether this is the actual state or only the effect of an insufficient number of tests carried out.

Table 11. The evolution of the epidemic in Poland.

date confirmed cases daily increase in comfirmed cases daily % increase
2020-03-30 2055 193 10.37%
2020-03-29 1862 224 13.68%
2020-03-28 1638 249 17.93%
2020-03-27 1389 168 13.76%
2020-03-26 1221 170 16.18%
2020-03-25 1051 150 16.65%
2020-03-24 901 152 20.29%
date deaths cases daily increase in deaths cases daily % increase in deaths cases
2020-03-30 31 9 40.91%
2020-03-29 22 4 22.22%
2020-03-28 18 2 12.5%
2020-03-27 16 0 0%
2020-03-26 16 2 14.29%
2020-03-25 14 4 40%
2020-03-24 10 2 25%
date recovered cases daily increase in recovered cases daily % increase in recovered cases
2020-03-30 7 0 0%
2020-03-29 7 0 0%
2020-03-28 7 0 0%
2020-03-27 7 0 0%
2020-03-26 7 0 0%
2020-03-25 7 6 600%
2020-03-24 1 0 0%

Mortality in individual countries

Before we proceed to the analysis of mortality in individual countries, we must emphasize that for the purposes of this article we will define it in two ways:

  1. stricter as the ratio of deaths to recovered cases: \[\frac{deaths\_cases}{recovered\_cases}\]

and

  1. less restrictively describing mortality as the ratio of deaths to infected cases: \[\frac{deaths\_cases}{confirmed\_cases}\]

which will allow us to show the same data in two different shots. In the figures below for individual countries, the first one will be marked in red and the second in black.

It is worth noting here that, despite the fact that the first definition seems to be more correct, when we can accurately connect the confirmed case with its subsequent history (recovery or death), the second one is the one that appears much more frequently in the available citations and closer to the truth in the I stage, when the epidemic develops.

This is undoubtedly due to the fact that at the initial stage of the epidemic development, the first definition can be very misleading (due to the very small number of people reovered and the number of deaths rising rapidly) and can show values greater than 100%, and additionally have very high volatility. Additionally, at the stage of epidemic development (stage I - initial stage), mortality according to the first definition increases very quickly and then the red line moves away from the black line, and then when the epidemic is under control (stage II - final stage) mortality according to the first definition (red line) begins to converge from very high levels to values determined according to the first definition.

An excellent illustration of this reasoning is the mortality evolution chart for China (Figure 16, where it seems that the second stage of epidemic development started at the end of January) and the chart for South Korea (Figure 23, where the second stage of epidemic development started at the beginning of March). In the remaining charts for major European countries, the USA and Iran (Figures 17 to 22), the mutual relationship between the red and black lines indicates the first stage of the epidemic development, which largely explains the panic reaction of financial markets and suggests that soon with the inflow of new data the trend may reverse.

Mortality - World

Mortality in the world according to the first definition is currently at the level of 22.84%, , while according to the second definition, more frequently appearing in popular scientific studies it is currently at the level of 4.8%. When considering the mortality, we should focus on these two values and carefully observe the spread between them. In addition, the shape of the curves illustrating the evolution of the mortality rate in accordance with two definitions clearly illustrates the moment of the epidemic transfer from China to other countries in the world (beginning of March, 2020) when the epidemic was practically controlled in China.

Mortality - World, Outside China

For other countries outside of China, the spread in mortality between the two definitions is unfortunately greater, as illustrated in the chart below. According to the second definition, mortality is currently around 38.67%, while according to the first, more restrictive definition it reaches almost 4.9%. In other countries, except China and South Korea, we can talk about the initial development of the epidemic, so at least for now we should focus on the second definition (black line), while the first definition will be the more appropriate at the final stage of the epidemic.

Mortality - China

In China, on the basis of available data, the situation seems controlled, regardless of which definition of mortality we look at. According to the first definition, mortality is 4.36%, and according to the second 4.02%, which clearly shows that with proper crisis management, an epidemic does not have to turn into a pandemic causing a global crisis.

Mortality - other countries

The next figures will focus on mortality in countries such as: United States (1.84%), Italy (11.39%), Spain (8.77%), Germany (0.96%), France (6.71%), Iran (6.64%) and South Korea as the second optimistic case (1.64%), in which the most cases have been recorded so far.

United States

The mutual relationship between the red and black lines indicates the initial stage of epidemic development, which at least to some extent explains the panic reaction of the stock exchanges. According to the second definition, the US death rate is currently 1.84%, but what is important we can observe very fast approaching of the red line to the black line what can be regarded as positive factor.

Mortality - Italy

In the case of Italy, the values based on two definitions of mortality again give completely different indications. It should be noted here that at the current stage of data availability and timeliness, the more reliable definition of mortality is definition number 2 (defined by the black line on the chart and currently indicating 11.39%), and the red line, specifically the minimum of its value and 100%, only means the level to which mortality could occur with extremely negative developments.

Mortality - Spain

Mortality in Spain at level 8.77% is only slightly higher than the world average, and the ratio of red and black lines, just like in other European countries, indicates the initial stage of the epidemic.

Mortality - Germany

Mortality in Germany at level 0.96% is very low compared to the world average and again shows that the development of the situation does not have to be as negative as currently assumed by financial markets. The strong increase in the red against the black line illustrates the beginning of the epidemic.

Mortality - Iran

Mortality in Iran is currently at the level of 6.64% which is higher than the world average.

Mortality - France

In France, the mortality rate is currently 6.71%, i.e. slightly above the level of the world average, the other conclusions are similar to other European countries.

Mortality - South Korea

In South Korea, the mortality rate is currently very low 1.64%, and even more restrictive version (according to definition (1)) currently located at level 3.02%, after a sharp decrease over the last three weeks, has recently fallen to the mortality value calculated as defined (2). This is a very positive example of stopping the epidemic and a country that has gone China’s way.

Mortality - a collective approach

The next two figures show the collected data according to the first and second definitions of mortality. In practice, it is worth pointing out here that a different number of tests performed in individual countries may have an impact on the number of identified infected and on the identification of deaths caused by coronavirus infection.

Definition # 1

The huge variability of the mortality rate calculated according to the first definition shows its low usefulness as a point measure showing the picture of the epidemic. However, its fluctuation in time, and especially a permanent transition from an upward or downward trend, regardless of the level at which it happens, can identify the end of the initial “upward” stage of the epidemic and the beginning of the second “downward” stage of it.

Definition # 2

The next graph presents the mortality rate calculated according to the second definition for 9 countries with the highest number of cases, Poland, for the whole world and the world outside of China. The situation presented in the chart does not allow for unambiguous interpretation, apart from the identification of countries with mortality above and below the world average.

Coronavirus outbreak - summary figures

Well, the next eight figures present a summary of the number of infected and deaths cases in countries with the highest number of confirmed cases, South Korea and in Poland.

We return to the logarithmic scale again.

Number of confimred cases

The number of confirmed cases - absolute values

I approach - absolute figures - chronologically

The chart below presents the evolution of the epidemic in the countries with the highest number of confirmed cases.

II approach - absolute values - start when the number of confirmed cases in a given country > 500

The figure below allows, firstly, to compare the evolution of the epidemic in individual countries since the number of confirmed casesreached a certain common value in each of them (i.e. 500 cofirmed cases), and secondly to relate the current evolution of the epidemic in a given country to the evolution of the epidemic in China where it all started. In this perspective, the current development of the epidemic in the countries with the highest number of infected is exactly the same as in the initial period in China.

The number of confirmed cases as% of the population

Before proceeding to the summary, it is worth looking at the epidemic approach in relation to the population of individual countries. The next two figures show the evolution of the epidemic (number of confirmed cases) in relative terms, i.e. relative to the world’s population and individual countries’ population to properly compare epidemic development between countries.

I approach - as % of the population - chronologically

The figure shows the number of confirmed cases as % of the population in countries with the highest number of coronavirus cases. Again, we can see that the situation in countries such as the USA, Italy, Spain, Germany, Iran and France may be of concern due to the relatively higher absolute number of confirmed cases in these countries compared to the global average. However, a more detailed analysis of the trajectories of the curves for individual countries shows that at least for Iran and Italy, but not only, the growth dynamics is starting to weaken, and for China and South Korea it has been completely slowed down. Data for subsequent days will only allow to assess the further development of the situation in these and subsequent countries exposed to the epidemic.

II approach - as % of the population - start at the moment when the number of confirmed cases in a given country > country_population / 1 million

The next figure again shows the relative approach to epidemic development, i.e. relative to the population of the country, but this time with a common starting point. Data for each country begins when the number of cofirmed cases in each of them reached population of a given country divided by one million, i.e. 38 people in Poland, 329 in the USA, and 1400 in China. This figure, unfortunately, is not optimistic because the dynamics of growth in all countries with the highest number of confirmed cases in relative terms is currently greater than in China, and the slowdown in dynamics is currently visible only in South Korea.

Number of deaths

The next four figures summarize the evolution of the number of deaths in countries with the highest number of confirmed cases.

The numer of deaths cases - absolute values

I approach - absolute figures - chronologically

II approach - absolute values - start when the number of confirmed cases in a given country > 10

Analysis of death cases in absolute terms in the most infected countries leads to similar conclusions to the analysis of confirmed cases. As for now, the development of dynamics is similar to that in China at the same stage of epidemic development.

The number of deaths cases as % of the population

The analysis of deaths in relation to the population in the countries concerned leads to similar conclusions as the analysis of cpnfirmed cases. As in the case of infected people, only data for the coming days will allow to determine whether in more countries we are dealing with controlling the dynamics of the epidemic development, or on the contrary we will be dealing with its rapid spread.

I approach - as % of the population - chronologically

II approach - as% of the population - start at the moment when the number of deaths cases in a given country > country_population / 1 million

The next figure shows again the relative approach to the development of the epidemic, in the context of deaths cases, i.e. in relation to the population of the country, but this time with a common starting point. Data for each country begins when the number of deaths in each of them reached country population divided by one million. Unfortunately, this chart, similarly to the chart for the number of confirmed cases, is not optimistic because the growth dynamics in all countries with the largest number of confirmed cases in relative terms is currently greater than in China, and we see a clear slowdown only in South Korea.

— The end —